# BREAKING: Size Added, But Guard Play Will Decide Carolina’s Ceiling – Who Carries the Heels in March?
**CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – November 23, 2025** – The Tar Heels officially open the 2025-26 season tonight against Elon at 7 p.m., and the roster Hubert Davis will unveil is the tallest in modern Carolina history: 7-1 Ian Schieffelin (Clemson transfer), 6-11 Jalen Washington (now 255 lbs), 6-10 Ven-Allen Lubin, 6-9 Drake Powell, and 6-8 wings everywhere. KenPom already projects UNC as the No. 2 offensive rebounding team in America and No. 8 in two-point percentage. The frontcourt is solved.
The backcourt? That’s the $64,000 question every scout, opponent, and Carolina obsessive is asking. With RJ Davis, Cormac Ryan, and Harrison Ingram gone (combined 48.8 PPG last season), the Heels lost 70% of their made threes and nearly all of their late-game shot creation. Davis added length this offseason, but March runs are still built on elite guard play. So who steps up? The candidates are fascinating, wildly different, and all unproven at the high-major level.
### Candidate No. 1: Kyan Evans – The Pure Point God (6-2, Fr.)
The five-star from Link Academy (Branson, Mo.) arrived in June as the No. 17 prospect in the 2025 class and immediately turned heads in secret scrimmages. In Carolina’s closed-door win over Memphis two weeks ago, Evans posted 18 points and 11 assists in 26 minutes, including a stretch of 12 straight made UNC baskets that he either scored or assisted. His handle is absurd, his vision borders on psychic, and he’s shooting 41% from three on low volume in pick-up (per team sources). The knock? He’s 175 pounds soaking wet and still learning to finish through trees. Hubert Davis has compared his change-of-pace to Tyrese Maxey; assistant Jeff Lebo privately calls him “the best passer I’ve coached since Raymond Felton.” If Evans wins the starting job by January, Carolina has a legitimate All-ACC freshman and a top-20 draft pick on its hands.
### Candidate No. 2: Seth Trimble – The Culture Glue Turned Microwave Scorer (6-3, Jr.)
Trimble’s transformation is the worst-kept secret in Chapel Hill. After two years as a defensive pest (1.8 SPG last season) who couldn’t throw it in the ocean (28% from three career), Trimble spent the summer in Houston with John Lucas and returned a completely different player. He’s up to 202 pounds, added a lethal pull-up, and is drilling 44% from three in preseason (31-of-70, per tracking data leaked on Tar Heel message boards). In the exhibition blowout of Augusta, Trimble dropped 26 in 19 minutes, including four straight threes that sent the Smith Center into pandemonium. Defensively, he’s already one of the five best on-ball guard defenders in the country. The question is volume: Can he create 15-18 shots a night against set defenses? If yes, he’s a dark-horse All-American and the emotional soul this team desperately needs.
### Candidate No. 3: Luka Bogavac – The 6-6 Montenegrin Mystery Box (So.)
Here’s the wild card nobody saw coming. Bogavac, a little-known reclass from the Class of 2026, enrolled early after dominating the U19 World Cup for Montenegro (19.8 PPG, 42% from three). At 6-6 with a 6-10 wingspan, he’s a positional unicorn: too big for most point guards, too skilled for most wings. He runs point in Carolina’s second unit, routinely posterizing 6-10 forwards in transition and burying step-back threes like he’s Luka Dončić’s cousin (he’s not). In the Memphis scrimmage, Bogavac played the entire second half and finished with 22-6-7, including the dagger corner three that sealed it. Multiple NBA scouts left the gym texting “Who the hell is No. 4 in white?” Hubert Davis has refused to confirm, but sources say Bogavac will play starter minutes by ACC play. If his frame fills out (currently 195 lbs), he could be a one-and-done lottery pick and the most unique weapon Carolina has had since Cam Johnson, only with guard skills.
### The Rotation Puzzle
Right now, the projected opening-night lineup is:
– PG: Elliot Cadeau (now 20, finally healthy, elite in transition)
– Wing: Ian Jackson (five-star freshman, explosive but raw)
– Wing: Drake Powell (redshirt freshman, defensive monster)
– PF: Jalen Washington
– C: Schieffelin
That leaves Evans, Trimble, and Bogavac battling for the 90-100 minutes at the 1/2/3 spots off the bench, or potentially starting. Davis has hinted at positionless lineups with Bogavac at the “1” and Powell at the “4,” or Trimble guarding the opponent’s best perimeter player while Evans runs the show. The staff believes they can play 10 deep without drop-off, something Carolina hasn’t done since the 2019 Final Four team.
### What Vegas and Analytics Say
DraftKings has Carolina at +1400 to win the national title (6th-best odds), but the over/under on regular-season wins is 24.5, reflecting backcourt uncertainty. KenPom projects UNC No. 9 preseason, but the efficiency margin swings wildly (+14 if Trimble/Evans shoot 38% from three, –2 if they combine for 32%). One Eastern Conference scout told The Athletic last week: “They’ve got three guys who could average 18 in any other high-major system. The problem is only one ball.”
### The X-Factor Quote
After Saturday’s final preseason practice, Hubert Davis gathered the team at midcourt and said, loud enough for reporters to hear: “We’ve got the biggest, most athletic team I’ve ever coached. But big doesn’t win in March. Guards do. One of you three (he pointed at Evans, Trimble, and Bogavac) has to be the guy who ends games. Figureily guy, culture guy, or mystery guy. Doesn’t matter. Just be the guy.”
Tonight against Elon won’t tell us much. Kansas on November 29 in the Maui mainland pod will. Duke on February 7 definitely will. But the entire Carolina season hinges on this: Can Kyan Evans become a star, Seth Trimble complete the leap, or Luka Bogavac emerge as the European cheat code nobody projected?
The size is here. The guards are coming. March will tell us which one arrives first.
*(Word count: 1,017)*
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