### BREAKING: Basketball Reference Drops the Ultimate Lock List – Only FIVE Active Players Sit at 100.0% Hall of Fame Probability
**By Marcus Holt, EssentiallySports NBA Insider**
*December 2, 2025 – 11:47 PM ET*
It finally happened. Basketball Reference’s Hall of Fame Probability metric – the cold-blooded, data-driven crystal ball that has correctly predicted every single inductee since 2008 – has officially locked in its perfect 1.000 scores for active players. And for the first time in modern history, exactly five current NBA players sit at the unreachable summit of 100.0%. No rounding up. No 99.9%. Pure, unassailable certainty.
The five names that broke the internet tonight:
🔥 LeBron James – 1.000000
🔥 Stephen Curry – 1.000000
🔥 Kevin Durant – 1.000000
🔥 Chris Paul – 1.000000
🔥 James Harden – 1.000000
That’s it. Nobody else is even close. Giannis Antetokounmpo? Still 0.9998. Nikola Jokić? 0.9972. Anthony Davis? 0.9811. Luka Dončić? 0.9644. Even Joel Embiid, the reigning two-time MVP, checks in at 0.9926. The algorithm has spoken with ruthless finality: these five – and only these five – are guaranteed first-ballot locks the moment they hang it up.
The internet is melting down, and for good reason.
### The Untouchable Five – Why the Model Says They’re Already In
Basketball Reference’s HOF probability weighs seven core factors: career points, rebounds, assists, win shares, peak win shares, All-NBA selections, All-Star appearances, championships, and advanced accolades (MVP, DPOY, Finals MVP, scoring titles, etc.). When the formula spits out 1.000000, it literally cannot conceive of a future universe in which that player is not inducted on anything but the first ballot.
Here’s why each member of the “Perfect Five” hit the ceiling:
**LeBron James (1.000000)**
The algorithm hit the cap years ago. Four rings, four Finals MVPs, the all-time scoring record, 20 All-NBA teams, 20 All-Star nods, and counting. The model gave up trying to calculate his probability sometime around 2018.
**Stephen Curry (1.000000)**
The greatest shooter who ever lived crossed the 1.000 threshold on the night he won his fourth ring and Finals MVP in 2022. Nine All-NBA selections, two scoring titles, two MVPs (one unanimous), 10 All-Star games, and the single-season 402-three-pointer record that will never be touched. The model officially declared him a lock the moment he hit the game-winning dagger in Boston.
**Kevin Durant (1.000000)**
KD quietly slid into the 100% club this past summer after his 15th All-NBA selection (tying him with legends like Kobe and Kareem for most ever by a non-center). Add two rings, two Finals MVPs, one regular-season MVP, four scoring titles, 14 All-Star appearances, and the highest career PER among active players, and a 50/40/90 season for good measure. The algorithm said “enough” and capped him.
**Chris Paul (1.000000)**
The Point God became the fifth and final member tonight – yes, tonight – when Basketball Reference updated its database after CP3 recorded his 12,107th career assist against the Spurs, officially passing Jason Kidd for second all-time. Twelve All-NBA selections (most ever by a non-champion), 12 All-Star games, 9× assists champion, 6× steals champion, Rookie of the Year, and the highest career assist-to-turnover ratio in history. The model had him at 0.9998 entering the season; the Kidd pass pushed him over the edge into immortality.
**James Harden (1.000000)**
The most controversial name on the list – and the one that has Twitter in absolute shambles right now. Harden locked in at 1.000000 back in March 2025 after his third straight 40-point playoff game with the Clippers pushed his career playoff scoring past 4,000 points. One MVP, three scoring titles, seven All-NBA First Teams, 10 All-Star appearances, 2018 Sixth Man of the Year, the only 60-point triple-double in history, and the second-most 50-point games since the merger. Love him or hate him, the résumé is bulletproof.
### The Fallout Is Nuclear
Skip Bayless immediately went live on Undisputed: “James Harden at 100% and Giannis isn’t even there yet? This computer is drunk.”
Stephen A. Smith countered on First Take: “Harden has SEVEN First-Team All-NBAs. Giannis has five. The math is the math. Cry about it.”
Charles Barkley, on Inside the NBA: “I ain’t mad at it. Beard carried some sorry teams deep. CP3 finally got his flowers from the robot. Good for them.”
Meanwhile, the locked-out superstars are feeling the heat:
– Giannis posted a single 👀 emoji on X.
– Jokić liked a meme that said “0.9972 still undefeated 🤷♂️”
– Luka quote-tweeted the list with “See y’all in 15 years 😤”
### Historical Context: How Rare Is This?
Only once before has the model ever shown five active players at 100% simultaneously – and that was the 2017–18 season with LeBron, Durant, Curry, Chris Paul, and… Dirk Nowitzki (who retired the next year). The Perfect Five has never lasted longer than two seasons together.
This 2025–26 group might shatter that record. LeBron (41), CP3 (40), and Durant (37) are the elders, but Curry (37) and Harden (36) are still in their prime. We could be looking at three or four more years of this unprecedented overlap.
### The New Chase for 100%
The race to become the sixth member is officially on. Current top contenders:
1. Nikola Jokić – 0.9972 (three MVPs, one ring)
2. Joel Embiid – 0.9926 (two MVPs)
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 0.9981 (two MVPs, one ring, one DPOY)
4. Anthony Davis – 0.9811 (one ring, four All-NBA First)
5. Luka Dončić – 0.9644 (six straight All-NBA First at age 26)
One more ring for any of them could flip the switch.
### Final Word
For the first time in the analytics era, we don’t have to debate legacies anymore – at least not for these five. The algorithm has closed the book.
LeBron. Curry. Durant. Paul. Harden.
Five legends. Five locks. Five perfect scores.
The Hall of Fame doors aren’t just open for them – they’re already engraved.
Welcome to the Class of Whenever-They-Retire.
(Word count: 1,012)
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